Based on the breathless headlines in the media, you'd think that China had committed itself to something huge regarding its greenhouse gas emissions. For instance, the Washington Post headline reads, "China proposes emissions cuts: Planned reduction of up to 45% falls short of target many world leaders hoped Beijing would make." The New York Times' headline reads, "China Joins U.S. in Pledge of Hard Targets on Emissions," the LA Times' says "China vows to cut greenhouse gas emissions 40% by 2020," and the Chicago Tribune's claims that "China pledges to cut greenhouse gases."Wrong. Wrong. Wrong. Wrong.
In fact, according to the US Energy Information Administration's base case forecast, China is already expected to see a decline of 45% in its carbon/GDP ration (aka, its carbon intensity) between 2005 and 2020. Unfortunately, China's absolute level of CO2 emissions are expected to increase by 73% between 2005 and 2020. This forecast results in a 45% decline in China's carbon intensity simply because the country's GDP is forecast to grow by 213% during the same time period, much faster than CO2 emissions are expected to rise.
In fairness to the media, several of them seem to have gotten the story (mostly) right in the actual text of the articles (as opposed to the egregiously incorrect headlines), with the Washington Post and New York Times both emphasizing the fact that China's "pledge" (it's voluntary not mandatory, by the way) would cut the country's carbon intensity not its absolute level of carbon dioxide emissions by 2020. The LA Times, in contrast, gets the medal of dishonor for writing that "China vowed Thursday to cut its greenhouse gas emissions by nearly half over the next decade" and that "the country would reduce its carbon dioxide emissions by 40% to 45% compared with levels in 2005." In fact, that's not even remotely close to being accurate, but nice try LA Times!