Volunteer to the Work the Polls for Mike, Miles, Mark, Kaye...

Given that there are so many undecided voters in the Democratic Lieutenant Governor's race, and given that most people will probably be coming out to vote for the top of the ticket on June 9, it's crucial that Mike Signer has as many polling places as possible covered with volunteers handing out literature, etc. I strongly recommend that everyone who supports Mike volunteer to spend at least a few hours covering a polling station on election day. Also, if you're in the 47th HoD district, you could help Miles Grant. If you're in the 35th, you could help Mark Keam. And if you're in the 38th, you could help Kaye Kory. Just a suggestion. :)

P.S. Also, check out Mike Signer's latest fundraising email here.

P.P.S. Obviously, I'd love to see people coming out to cover the polls for Terry McAuliffe as well, I'm just pointing out that more people will have their minds made up on the governor's race than on the down-ballot contests.

Teacherken (and me) on Straw Polls

I agree with Teacherken on his analysis of polls and "straw polls":

Let's start with the two straw polls, in Fredericksburg and Winchester. Moran kicked ass in Fredericksburg, Deeds did so in Winchester. In general, straw polls do not tell us all that much we do not already know. There are exceptions, such as Webb surprisingly winning the straw poll at Connolly's St. Paddy's Day event in 2006, when most people assumed that Miller had the poll rapped up. The Webb campaign did not have the money to buy a lot of tickets for supporters, so the results then were a reflection of the support he was drawing on the ground, from ordinary people.

But most straw polls tend to be reflective of the support one has from party regulars in that area. In a low turnout primary, that may be fairly indicative of the kind of support in that area one will see when people vote, because not only will these regulars vote, they are the key to turning out others.

But when the turnout begins to increase beyond the party base, you get a higher percentage of people who do not react the way party regulars do, so the straw polls may carry less weight.

As a Deeds and Signer report, let me thus comment first on the recent 5th CD straw poll and the one in Winchester. In both cases candidates I support did quite well - Deeds over 90% in the 5th and almost 80% in Winchester. Deeds lives in the 6th, but has strong support throughout the Valley (Winchester) and in much of the 5th (his Senate district overlaps a chunk, and among Democrats he was known for his strong support of Perriello). Thus he would be expected to win a real primary vote, but almost certainly not by such obscene margins. As for Signer, he has personal roots in the 5th - especially in Charlottesville - and he was present for the poll while Wagner was not. Mike is an effective speaker. Thus his 66% margin may or may not be indicative. Further, his campaign chair is Dem. party chair of a County in the 5th (Lunenberg), which further amplifies Mike's support among party regulars. It is possible he could win 2/3 of the vote in a 2-way, but that straw poll took place when Bowerbank was still in the race, and thus was in a 3-way contest.

I would also add that many of these "straw polls" have tiny vote totals, sometimes only 30 or 40 people, so I'd take them with a tall pillar of salt for that reason and all the other reasons listed above by Teacherken. Of course, I'd also take "scientific" polls with some salt, but a grain not a pillar in this case. The fact is, "scientific" polls aren't perfect by any stretch of the imagination (especially in low-turnout elections), but they are infinitely more predictive than "straw polls" with their low vote totals, their susceptibility to one or more candidates to pack the "poll" with their supporters, etc.

Again, as Teacherken notes above, what made Jim Webb's victory over Harris Miller in the 2006 St. Patrick's Day straw poll so important was that: a) Harris Miller was the overwhelming favorite, as the poll was held on Miller's home turf, at his ally Gerry Connolly's own event; b) Webb had no money, so he couldn't affort to buy tickets for supporters, thus this was almost certainly true grassroots in nature; c) Miller did have money, so by all rights he should have been able to pay for enough tickets to win that poll; and d) it was a shocker that nobody was expecting, as opposed to most straw polls which are a complete yawner (wow, candidate x won a straw poll among a group of people who overwhelmingly support candidate x, you don't say - lol).

So, keep all those factors in mind over the next 18 days or so, as "straw polls" proliferate and are touted by supporters of McAuliffe, Deeds, Moran, Signer, Wagner, House of Delegates candidates, Adam Lambert, Kris Allen, or whoever else might show up on one of these things. :)

A Few Thoughts on Straw Polls

The straw poll last night at the Mt. Vernon Democratic committee fundraiser/party got me thinking about these things. Do they have any significance whatsoever? Do they indicate anything beyond which candidate spends the most money and effort to get their supporters out to vote for them? Are they just fun gimmicks to attract people to political fundraisers? A few thoughts.

1. Straw polls probably only matter if the result is surprising or even shocking in some way. For instance, when Jim Webb defeated Harris Miller at Gerry Connolly's St. Patrick's Day Party on March 17, 2006, that was a big deal because it was totally unexpected and also because it was on Harris Miller's home turf. Former Webb campaign senior strategist Steve Jarding said in Netroots Rising that Webb's 58%-42% victory that night marked "a key turning point" in the primary campaign. Why? Because it was a complete shocker that Jim Webb could come into the heart of Connolly/Miller country and defeat him among the type of people who attend Connolly fundraisers. That level of grassroots support and enthusiasm proved to be significant, silly/flawed straw poll or not.

2. In 2007, the winners of Gerry's St. Patrick's Day straw poll were eventual nominees Margi Vanderhye (19-12 over Rip Sullivan), Rex Simmons (19-6 over Morris Meyer), and George Barker (51-5 over Greg Galligan). That's 100% accuracy right there. On the other hand, Hillary Clinton won the straw poll, 96-68, over John Edwards, with Barack Obama at 63 votes. In the end, Obama won the Virginia Democratic primary by nearly 300,000 votes over Hillary Clinton, with John Edwards having dropped out on January 30, 2008. Obama also won Fairfax County, where the straw poll was held, by a wide margin (59%-40%).

3. Obviously, a straw poll is held in one specific location, so its results - particularly for a statewide office - would be valid at all only in that specific location (e.g., southern Alexandria). Beyond that, I wouldn't put much stock in them.

4. I would argue that straw polls can be significant both as an indication of organization strength and also as a measure of true, grassroots support. For instance, the party last night was in the heart of "Moran country," so one would expect strong grassroots support for Brian Moran there. And he got it, winning the straw poll handily (83-43-33). Other candidates had neither the grassroots support - at least not yet and not in that venue - nor the money to pay for supporters to come out and vote for them. Thus, Rich Savage received just 10 votes and Mike Signer just 15 votes. We'll see if Savage, Signer, and the others who didn't win last night can crank it up in coming months.

5. Finally, it matters if a campaign decides to seriously contest a straw poll or not. In 2006, the Webb campaign was leaning against competing in the Connolly straw poll until Chris Ambrose almost singlehandedly talked them into it (after contacting 300 people in Fairfax -- including 60% of the Fairfax County Democratic Committee -- urging those favorable to Webb to attend the party). Essentially, "you can't win if you don't play," but it's also a calculated gamble by campaigns whether or not to risk competing and losing. In the end, the Webb campaign competed, won, and reaped the benefits. But it was a strategy that was not without risk.

In the end, Brian Moran won the gubernatorial straw poll last night was would certainly be expected in "Moran country." The McAuliffe campaign decided not to compete in this one. Whether that was a wise decision or not, time will tell, but McAuliffe campaign manager Mike Henry's a smart guy and I'd assume he knew exactly what he was doing.

On the LG side, Jon Bowerbank attempted to win the straw poll by encouraging his supporters to attend, but in the end he fell a bit short of Jody Wagner (62-44 votes), whose free popcorn apparently carried the day (but not by much, and in the heart of "Jody country," where she had been endorsed by every delegate and most Board of Supervisors members and she just barely cracked 40% of the vote - not particularly impressive). Just kidding on the popcorn, although on second thought, straw polls can be - really bad pun alert - pretty "corny" affairs. Ha. :)