Final PPP Poll: McDonnell Holds 14-Point Lead Over Deeds

Yes, I'm well aware of the (annoying, mindless) cliche that the "only poll that matters is on election day," but we've now had dozens of polls in a row essentially saying what Public Policy Polling's last poll of Virginia 2009 concludes:

Bob McDonnell leads Creigh Deeds 56-42 in PPP's final poll of the race.

In a finding that may sum up what happened here 63% of voters in the state think McDonnell made a strong case for why he should be Governor while only 34% said the same of Deeds. Even 36% of Deeds' supporters said he hadn't made a good argument for why he should be elected.

[...]

McDonnell will be bringing some folks with him. Bill Bolling leads 54-41 for Lieutenant Governor and Ken Cuccinelli has a 55-39 advantage for Attorney General. Republicans also have a 48-39 lead on the generic House of Delegates ballot.

A 13-point lead for Bolling over Wagner and a 16-point lead for Crazy Cooch over Shannon, and a 9-point lead in the "generic House of Delegates ballot?" This is not good, to put it mildly. In fact, barring a miracle of megalottery proportions, the only real question Tuesday night and beyond is going to be "what went wrong?" I have a lot of thoughts on this subject, but will save them until AFTER the votes are counted. For now, the urgency is for everyone who cares about Virginia to get out and vote for the Democratic ticket on Tuesday. Polls open in just 24 hours. Also, tell everyone you know to vote Democratic - or, if that's not enough to motivate people, just tell 'em to vote AGAINST McDonnell/Bolling/Cooch. Either will do...

P.S. Full results are here.

Latest Polling With 48 Hours to Go

With just 48 hours to go until polls open in Virginia, here's the latest polling courtesy of Pollster.com - a 53.8%-41.0% average lead for Bob McDonnell over Creigh Deeds.



Also, the Richmond Times-Dispatch has a new poll showing Bob McDonnell ahead of Creigh Deeds by 12 points, 53%-41%, "a widened lead from an early October." The RTD poll has Bill Bolling leading Jody Wagner by 13 points and crazy Ken Cuccinelli over Steve Shannon by 14 points. Obviously, I hope all these polls are wrong, but given that McDonnell has led Deeds for about 30 straight polls now, the statistical chances of that being wrong are utterly miniscule. Still, it's important to get out and vote on Tuesday, both because it's your civic duty (yes, I know it's corny, but I really believe that) and also because there are several "down ballot" races that could hinge on just a few votes. Thanks.

UPDATE: Creigh Deeds says, "The only poll that matters has yet to be taken." And that poll will begin in less than 48 hours...go vote!

Research 2000 Poll: McDonnell 54%-Deeds 44%

Here is the lastest poll by Research 2000 for Daily Kos. Compare to the September poll results here. The bottom line is that McDonnell leads Deeds by 10 points in this poll, 54%-44% and that Deeds is heading in the wrong direction. Markos writes, "With another five point drop in the last six weeks, the only drama here is whether Deeds' horrible campaign drags down Democrats further down the ballot."

Kyle's "triage" strategy appears to be looking better and better...

P.S. Marc Ambinder of The Atlantic has some thoughts on the 2009 Virginia governor's race here ("pre-mortem") and here ("more lessons learned").