Final PPP Poll: McDonnell Holds 14-Point Lead Over Deeds

Yes, I'm well aware of the (annoying, mindless) cliche that the "only poll that matters is on election day," but we've now had dozens of polls in a row essentially saying what Public Policy Polling's last poll of Virginia 2009 concludes:

Bob McDonnell leads Creigh Deeds 56-42 in PPP's final poll of the race.

In a finding that may sum up what happened here 63% of voters in the state think McDonnell made a strong case for why he should be Governor while only 34% said the same of Deeds. Even 36% of Deeds' supporters said he hadn't made a good argument for why he should be elected.

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McDonnell will be bringing some folks with him. Bill Bolling leads 54-41 for Lieutenant Governor and Ken Cuccinelli has a 55-39 advantage for Attorney General. Republicans also have a 48-39 lead on the generic House of Delegates ballot.

A 13-point lead for Bolling over Wagner and a 16-point lead for Crazy Cooch over Shannon, and a 9-point lead in the "generic House of Delegates ballot?" This is not good, to put it mildly. In fact, barring a miracle of megalottery proportions, the only real question Tuesday night and beyond is going to be "what went wrong?" I have a lot of thoughts on this subject, but will save them until AFTER the votes are counted. For now, the urgency is for everyone who cares about Virginia to get out and vote for the Democratic ticket on Tuesday. Polls open in just 24 hours. Also, tell everyone you know to vote Democratic - or, if that's not enough to motivate people, just tell 'em to vote AGAINST McDonnell/Bolling/Cooch. Either will do...

P.S. Full results are here.

PPP, SurveyUSA Indicate Landslide for GOP on 11/3

The polling news this morning has gone from horrible to abominable. First, here's SurveyUSA:

*McDonnell leads Deeds by 17 points, 58%-41%
*Bolling leads Wagner by 14 points, 56%-42%
*Cuccinelli leads Shannon by 16 points, 57%-41%

Now, here's PPP:

*McDonnell leads Deeds by 15 points, 55%-40%
*Bolling leads Wagner by 12 points, 50%-38%
*Cuccinelli leads Shannon by 16 points, 52%-36%

Enjoy the landslide. Barf.

UPDATE: This might be a good time to review NLS's "McDonnell +10" scenario, which would "lead to a GOP pickup in the House of 2-5 seats, giving the Republican Caucus 57-60 seats overall." There's also the "McDonnell +15" scenario, which would "likely lead to a GOP pickup in the House of 6-9 seats, giving the Republican Caucus 61-64 seats overall." My current prediction is for a net GOP pickup in the House of Delegates of around 5 seats.

UPDATE #2: With regard to the downballot races, this analysis by PPP is ominous.

There is some indication in the recent polls that Democratic voters are giving up on this race. At the beginning of September 38% of likely voters were Democrats. By the end of the month it was 37%, a week ago it was down to 33% and now it's at just 31%. That trend has major implications for the party's candidates further down the ballot.

This is exactly why, no matter what we think of Creigh Deeds or his campaign, we can't give up: there are many excellent House of Delegates candidates - incumbents and challengers - who could be swept out to sea if this turns into a Category 5 hurrricane (or is "tsunami" a better metaphor?). That would be a disaster for redistricting, as well as for putting a check on Bob McDonnell if/when he's governor.

PPP: "McDonnell Pulling Away" (52%-40%)

According to PPP's latest Virginia poll, Bob McDonnell is "pulling away" with under 2 weeks left to go.

Bob McDonnell has opened up a double digit lead over Creigh Deeds in his quest to be Virginia's next Governor. He now leads 52-40, up from 48-43 three weeks ago.

McDonnell's standing is largely the result of two things: considerable support from independents and a disengaged Democratic electorate. With independents, who tend to split pretty evenly, the Republican leads 60-31. And while Barack Obama won Virginia by six points last year, the voters planning to turn out this fall supported John McCain by six points, a clear indication that many Democratic voters are just planning to stay at home.

Let's just put it this way; I have a lot of thoughts on how this campaign has been run and have also heard from a lot of Democratic insiders on this subject, but I'll save them for after November 3.