Election Day Weather Forecast

Courtesy of the National Weather Service, here's the long-range forecast for Election Day 2009 in Virginia.

Arlington: Mostly sunny, with a high near 60.
Charlottesville: Mostly sunny, with a high near 61.
Danville: Mostly sunny, with a high near 63.
Fairfax: Mostly sunny, with a high near 59.
Richmond: Mostly clear. Highs in the lower 60s. Lows in the mid 40s.
Roanoke: Mostly sunny, with a high near 61.
Staunton: Mostly sunny, with a high near 59.
Virginia Beach: Mostly clear. Highs in the mid 60s. Lows in the mid 50s.
Winchester: Mostly sunny, with a high near 58.

In other words, there's no excuse - at least not weather related - not to vote. So go vote! :)

Election Day Open Thread: Polls Open 6 AM-7 PM

Just in case you weren't aware (ha), today is election day. I will be working the polls this morning for my friend Miles Grant, who is running for House of Delegates in the 47th district (Arlington) to replace the retiring Del. Al Eisenberg. I am very excited about Miles' candidacy, as he is a progressive champion and will bring a much needed perspective and energy to Richmond. Go Miles!

Also on the ballot today are the choices for governor (I've endorsed Terry McAuliffe over Brian Moran and Creigh Deeds), lieutenant governor (I've endorsed Mike Signer over Jody Wagner), and several other House of Delegates races (I've endorsed Mark Keam in the 35th and Kaye Kory in the 38th). At 7 pm this evening, we will (hopefully - I know I will) all unite as Democrats to defeat the far-right-wing troika of Bob McDonnell, Bill Bolling, and Ken Cuccinelli. I am very much looking forward to turning our firepower on those guys through November.

P.S. Please use this as an open thread to report whatever you're seeing and hearing out there. Thanks.

UPDATE: I was at my polling place at 5:55 am (to hand out lit for Miles Grant), and it promptly started to thunder, lightning and rain torrentially. Also, there was only 1 voter there at the start. By the time I left a few minutes ago (9:40 am), 113 voters had cast ballots, with poll workers saying there could be 450 by the end of the day (out of 2,000 registered voters, I believe) assuming an evening rush of people who didn't vote in the morning because of the bad weather. The only problem is, the forecast is for more thunderstorms later...

UPDATE #2: I'm hearing that Alan Howze has the worst poll coverage today in the 47th district. I'm also hearing that Mark Keam seemed to be getting a lot of votes in Oakton/Vienna...

UPDATE #3: The Washington Post reports, "Severe thunderstorms this morning appeared to lower voter turnout in a Virginia Democratic primary that was already expected to attract minimal participation, and predictions of more rainy weather tonight added to the sense of unpredictability in the wide-open three-way gubernatorial race." That definitely appeared to be the case where I was volunteering in Arlington.

UPDATE #4: A knowledgeable Democratic leader writes the following analysis, which I think is spot on.

Really low turnout helps those candidates who combine two things: (1) a really-well developed GOTV plan and (2) a really strong corps of committed loyal supporters. I don't think Deeds has either of those things in NOVA, and therefore it improves the relative chances of McAuliffe and Moran relative to Deeds in NOVA. On the other hand, if the thunderstorms are concentrated in NOVA and drive down NOVA's share of the total statewide vote, that helps Deeds and hurts McAuliffe and Moran. Go figure.

UPDATE #5: WJZ reports, "Registrars across Virginia are seeing light voter turnout in Tuesday's primaries...Election and party officials believe less than 5 percent of the state's 5 million registered voters will take part."

UPDATE #5: I'm hearing from a reliable source in Prince William County that turnout will probably be about 4%-5%. This compares to turnout of 1.1% in Prince William for the 2005 Democratic LG primary. I'm also hearing that in the 52nd House of Delegates district Democratic primary, Luke Torian will win in a landslide over Mike Hodge.

A Few Things To Look for on Tuesday

I'm borrowing in part from Dr. Bob Holsworth for this far-from-comprehensive list of "a few things to look for on Tuesday."

1. I agree with Holsworth that "Timing is Everything," and that "[o]n Tuesday, the Deeds campaign will be crossing its fingers and hoping that in 2009 it didn’t surge a day too early."

2. I also agree with Holsworth that "if McAuliffe wins on Tuesday, it’ll be the stuff you don’t see that will do it." In particular, Holsworth (and I) will be looking at how McAuliffe's field operation performs, whether it really "has done an excellent job in identifying and communicating with its voters," and whether "it will be able to get them to the polls on Tuesday." Finally, what about Brian Moran's self-professed "grassroots" campaign; to what extent does it exist and will it spring into action Tuesday? We'll find out soon enough.

3. Holsworth mentions Bobby Scott's support. I'd broaden this out to the question of how many African Americans will turn out to vote on Tuesday. If the answer is "very few," Terry McAuliffe - who is popular among African Americans and who has been endorsed by African American ministers, newspapers, etc. - will have a difficult time winning. If the answer is "a lot," McAuliffe will have an excellent shot. Keep an eye on African American turnout Tuesday.

4. Holsworth raises the issue of Republicans possibly voting in the Democratic primary in order to get the nominee they consider easiest for Bob McDonnell to defeat in November. Personally, I doubt there will be many of these votes, or that they'll be focused on any one candidate. If there is an organized, focused "Operation Chaos" phenomenon on Tuesday, however, that could make a difference in a close race. You might want to keep an eye out for signs of that.

5. What will overall turnout be, and how will it be distributed regionally? Nobody really knows, but that could make a major difference on Tuesday. High turnout in rural parts of Virginia, for instance, might help Creigh Deeds. High turnout in the African American community, as mentioned above, would almost certainly help Terry McAuliffe. High turnout in Alexandria and Arlington could help Brian Moran.

6. How many voters will show up at the polls still not really decided on their pick for governor? If so, how will they make up their minds? Will campaigns' poll coverage make a difference on Tuesday?

7. In the LG race, Jody Wagner remains the favorite but could Mike Signer's late mailings and other publicity help give him a boost on Tuesday?

8. In the 47th House of Delegates race, I'm looking closely at turnout. If it's really high, I think that will tend to hurt the "establishment" candidate, or whoever is perceived as the "establishment" candidate. In this race, that appears to be Patrick Hope. Will Mark Warner's endorsement of Alan Howze make a difference here? Will the strong grassroots campaign of Miles Grant - who I support - push him over the top to victory? Will Adam Parkhomenko's endorsements by national figures like Bill Clinton and Wes Clark influence 47th District voters to choose him or will those endorsements have little effect? Will many Latinos turn out to vote, undoubtedly helping Andres Tobar, who has emphasized the "historic" nature of his candidacy (although, actually, Jeff Frederick's mother is from Colombia, making Frederick the first Latino elected the Virginia General Assembly)?

9. How early will NLS "call it" in the various races? Ben's really good at this stuff, is almost never wrong, and I'll certainly be listening to what he has to say.

10. The weather. Right now, it looks like it will be hot with scattered showers, mainly in the late afternoon. Overall, the weather sounds to me like it won't be a negative factor in the sense of holding down turnout. But could nasty, late-afternoon thunderstorms in certain areas of Virginia make a difference? It's possible, and something to keep an eye on.

11. Other? What will you be looking for on Tuesday?