SurveyUSA Top "Swing State" Pollster

For everyone who dissed the SurveyUSA poll showing Terry McAuliffe with a 16-point lead over Brian Moran and Creigh Deeds, the Wall Street Journal's rankings of "swing state" pollsters would tend to differ. In fact, SurveyUSA and Public Policy Polling (PPP) are the two best "swing state" pollsters in the country, according to this analysis.

Speaking of PPP, expect a new Virginia poll from them on Tuesday. So far, they report that they are "seeing movement toward Terry McAuliffe," although PPP "[doesn't] know if we're seeing quite the magnitude of that [SurveyUSA] did." This should be interesting.

Clinton Coming to NOVA, Norfolk

I'll be attending the northern Virginia portion of this if at all possible:

On Wednesday, May 13 and Thursday, May 14, President Bill Clinton will return to Virginia to campaign with gubernatorial candidate Terry McAuliffe in Northern Virginia and Hampton Roads.

The campaign swing follows joint events held this past Monday in Richmond and Roanoke. There, Clinton highlighted McAuliffe's ability to create jobs across the Commonwealth and build Virginia's economy. McAuliffe has consistently emphasized his commitment to creating jobs, and opening up new opportunities for people across the Commonwealth.

Specific details regarding these upcoming events will be released in the coming days.

Good stuff from the McAuliffe campaign!

Video: To Michael Steele, "It's All Strategic"

LOLOLOL. Hahahahahahaha. ROFLMAO. Ah, Republicans; always good for a laugh!

Jeff Schapiro on Brian, Terry and Creigh

Republican Times-Disgrace Richmond Times-Dispatch political reporter Jeff Schapiro apparently doesn't think highly of the three Democratic candidates for governor. As Norman Leahy at Tertium Quids puts it, "Jeff unsheathes his long knife and promptly jams it into the back of each of the Democratic gubernatorial candidates." Schapiro hits Terry McAuliffe for supposedly not counting his crowd size in Richmond correctly the other day. Wow, that's a substantive shot right there, Jeff. I mean, the candidate is told by his senior strategist that there were 750 people there, and he believes this to be correct (which it very well may have been, by the way). Non-issue. Zzzzzzzzz.

Shapiro goes after Creigh Deeds for his "quasi-populist rant" against NAFTA, as well as for being too "big on gun rights" for Democratic primary voters. On NAFTA, Schapiro has an interesting point; I'll have more on that subject tomorrow. On guns...well, I'd just point out that Deeds' strong support for the Second Amendment isn't exactly new, nor is Deeds' long-standing "A" rating from the NRA. Yawn.

But whoa, when Schapiro turns to Brian Moran, the yawns turn to gasps - at least from Moran supporters. Check this out.

Then there's Brian Moran. When he's not trashing McAuliffe, Moran is moving further and further to the left. This suggests a couple of things: that McAuliffe really is ahead, or that Moran is really desperate. Either way, it's clear Moran is gambling the primary will attract only hard-core Democrats; you know, "liberals." So to attract the greens, Moran is against the coal-powered electric generator in Surry County. And to attract gays, Moran is promising to overturn the constitutional ban on same-sex marriage. These positions won't help Moran in a general election against Republican Bob McDonnell. Maybe Moran is making it up as he goes along. Not a sign of a seasoned candidate.

Ouch.

38th House of Delegates Interview: Bob Hull

In early April, I sent out identical questionnaires to both Democrats - Del. Robert Hull and challenger Kaye Kory - running for the Democratic nomination in the 38th House of Delegates district (Fairfax County - Mason and Providence magisterial districts). The Kory campaign responded immediately, and I published her interview on April 13. For whatever reason, I didn't hear back from Del. Bob Hull until a few days ago. Anyway, Del. Hull has now responded with his completed questionnaire, and I appreciate it. Thanks to both candidates for their responses to my questions, and may the best - most energetic, most progressive, etc. - candidate win!

1. Why, in your own words, have you decided to run for election/reelection to the Virginia House of Delegates from the 38th district at this time? What specific qualifications do you bring to the table?
1. I bring knowledge of my district. I have lived in or adjacent to my district my entire life. I think that I know my constituents and I have listened to their concerns.

2. I bring experience to the job. I served on Fairfax County boards and commissions for almost 19 years before being elected to office. I have served in the General Assembly for 17 years and I know how to get things done in Richmond.

3. I bring effectiveness to the job. I have sponsored legislation to prohibit firearms in recreation centers, consistently supported keeping abortions legal and available for women who choose to have them, helped secure millions of dollars in bonds to help build new road and rail projects in Northern Virginia, and fought to pass legislation that effectively bans smoking in restaurants in Virginia.

4. I have stood with Governors Mark Warner and Tim Kaine to ensure that Virginia is the best managed state in the nation, the most business-friendly state, and the place where children are the most likely to experience success.

2. How would you describe your political philosophy - progressive, moderate, conservative, or - to paraphrase Jim Webb - "the old political labels no longer apply?"
On fiscal matters, I am conservative and think that we need to preserve and protect Virginia’s triple-A credit rating. On other matters, I have a liberal or progressive viewpoint and I have fought to protect the civil rights, human rights, reproductive rights, worker’s rights, and civil liberties of the people of Virginia.

NOTE: I've moved Q&A's 3-12 to the comments section. Why doesn't Blogger software come with a "there's more" feature? Very annoying, as it means that long posts like this one take up the whole front page of the blog. Not good.

Tom Perriello "Setting the Pace" for 5th CD!

This Farmville Herald editorial is highly impressive by almost any standard:

Rep. Perriello is our congressman now, a vital tool, and anybody would be a fool to work against him or turn their back on the opportunity and expertise he and his staff offer. If you want to vote for someone else in November of 2010, feel free, but in the meantime you’d be awfully silly and self-defeating not to put this guy to work for the needs of the district and the people of Virginia.

Tom Perriello is showing the same hunger to do the job after being elected that he did to win election in the first place and is demonstrating his effectiveness in ways even those who voted against him have been quick to applaud. His enthusiasm and commitment have been noted and appreciated even by long-time supporters of Virgil Goode, who have spoken warmly of the new congressman in private conversations with me.

The first hundred days have shown Tom Perriello is more than up to the job of being a good congressman for the people of the Fifth District. Everyone who values the people in our community, rather than a political party, is bound to be hoping his energy and effectiveness on our behalf last as long as he is our congressman.

The betting here is that his energy and effectiveness will surely last at least that long.

All I can add is that I am so proud to have been a Perriello netroots volunteer in 2008. I'm also proud that to have believed, from the first time I met Tom in January 2008 (and despite many sayers of "nay" - lol), that he could beat Virgil Goode. Vindication? Yeah, you could say that. Even better, Virginia has a superb new, progressive Congressman who I believe will be "setting the pace" and doing great things for many years to come. Tom, my friend, I'm proud of you!

Virginia Education Association Will Not Endorse in Governor's Primary

I contacted the Virginia Education Association, and they confirmed the rumors I'd been hearing, that they will NOT be making an endorsement in the Democratic gubernatorial primary. That's surprising, as I had fully expected them to go with the guy they knew, Brian Moran.

But it's not just that they know Brian Moran. On his website, Moran touts himself as the "champion for education" (as opposed to every other politician?), the one who "joined Governor Warner and led the fight for the largest investment in education in Virginia history" (again, as opposed to every other Democrat, including Creigh Deeds, who "joined Governor Warner" on education and lots of other issues?). Moran also put out a 10-page education plan, in which he stresses his "personal commitment to public education" (as opposed to an "impersonal commitment?"). Meanwhile, over and over again throughout this campaign, Moran and his surrogates have touted his record on education, all but declaring himself the education candidate in the race.

Yet, in the end, the Virginia Education Association decided NOT to endorse in this year's Democratic gubernatorial primary. Sure, they'll spin this every which way, but that's still got to sting over at Moran HQ in Alexandria. It's got to sting even more when they read stuff like this:

...it was Terry McAuliffe who appeared to convert the hall [during last Thursday's Virginia Education Association debate at the Hampton convention center], earning sustained applause and bringing some delegates to their feet by tying each education-related question to his campaign's central theme: As a successful businessman, he knows how to create jobs.

So will all that acclaim translate into votes for McAuliffe?

Some teachers said after the debate that they think it will.

"Just like Mark Warner, I think you have to be out in the public with the people, working your bones off, to know what people need," said Jeanna Ellis, a special education teacher from Pittsylvania County. "I just know that when he finished speaking, you felt . . . "

"Invigorated," chimed in her Pittsylvania colleague, family and life sciences teacher Rita Gimbel.

"Yeah," Ellis said. "It made you want to stand up and say, 'Yes! You know what we need!' "

Veronica Gibson, a business education teacher from Henrico, said McAuliffe has probably earned her vote with his entrepreneurial flair.

"We have to work with business, find ways to use ties in the business world to improve education," she said.

After all these years, Virginia's teachers are now invigorated and excited about Terry, not Brian? Ouch, now THAT is "personal."

Twitter Poll: Terry Won Blogger Debate!

This is pretty funny, considering that Brian Moran was supposed to be the (self-proclaimed) netroots candidate. It's even funnier considering that this poll was put together by a big-time Moran supporter. So, let's see, Brian Moran can't win the St. Patrick's Day straw poll (supporters too busy that evening, apparently), can't win the Shad Planking sign war (Tim Kaine, Jim Webb and Mark Warner all wasted their money, too - ha), can't come within 15 points of Terry McAuliffe in the latest SurveyUSA poll, and can't even win an online poll organized by his own supporter(s). No wonder why he's so angry these days. Ha.

By the way, it looks like the McAuliffe campaign is having fun with these results. For instance:

*McAuliffe senior strategist Mo Elleithee tweets: "Results are in! @Terry_McAuliffe wins flash poll on who won Wednesday's netroots debate!"

*McAuliffe Deputy Policy Director Mark Giangreco, Jr. tweets, simply: "Poll results in on apr 29 Gov debate."

Funny, Serious Souter Tweets This Morning

Supreme Court justice David Souter is retiring, and people are tweeting about it. Here are few from this morning that I found funny and/or serious. What else are you hearing?

Good advice by David Weigel: "This would be a good time for ambitious liberal jurists to pay their motherfucking taxes."

Another funny tweet, also by David Weigel: "You people tweeting the Souter news realize that the rest of us have the Internet, too, right?"

Satirical conspiracy theory by Pandagon: "Souter retired to hide swine flu which protected Sebelius which masked Specter which hid Bo peeing in the Lincoln bedroom."

Politically incorrect joke about someone who thinks being "PC" is stupid by Fake Virginia: "Upon hearing of Souter retirement news, Clarence Thomas says, 'Which white dude is that?'"

My thoughts exactly by michstjame: "With Souter's impending retirement, I am again beyond grateful it is President Obama and not President McCain. I am every day, but-yeah."

Ditto by cplong: "Souter to retire, Obama to nominate the replacement. Another reason it was important to go door-to-door for BO last year."

Ditto Squared by Peter Daou: "Souter stepping down - in the end, wasn't the unspoken import of the '08 election about the courts? it's where Bush did lasting damage."

I was hoping the oldest justices would retire first and that Obama would replace them with young progressives who would be on the court for decades. Instead...Beth Renaldi: "Would not have predicted that Justice Souter would be first retirement from Supreme Court. After all, Justice Stevens is 89."

And get off my damn lawn, says grumpy old man Scott Surovell: "wonders why they call Souter, Stevens, Breyer, and Ginsburg "liberals." They don't hold a candle to William Brennan or Thurgood Marshall."

I'm so jaded and world weary, by Larry Sabato: "Supreme vacancy =supreme media frenzy. In the end, the new Justice will likely vote almost the same way as Souter. Much ado about v. little."

Clinton? Bill or Hillary? Marc Ambinder: "Potential Souter replacements: Kagan, Sears, D. Wood, Sotomayor, Sunstein, Clinton..... others? I'd love to say R. Posner, but ... no."

P.S. Here are some possible Souter replacements, many of whom are women. Personally, I vote for the most qualified progressive, male or female, but all else being equal, I think we need more women on the Supreme Court. We also need more diversity in general. But the top considerations have got to be that the person is a strong progressive and a brilliant legal mind.

Eric Cantor: It's not a "rebranding" effort after all

Huh?