Doug Wilder Predicts "two-man race"

This article, "Deeds, Moran Take Different Routes in Va. Race," is interesting in general - good work by Tim Craig and Fredrick Kunkle. What I found most intriguing, however, were the following paragraphs:

With the primary more than three months away, most political analysts say the nomination is up for grabs. In the coming weeks, however, many expect that one of the contenders will start lagging the others in public opinion polls, momentum and fundraising.

Given his expected money advantage, McAuliffe will almost certainly be a formidable candidate until the end of the primary campaign, said former Virginia governor L. Douglas Wilder (D). Deeds and Moran are trying to guarantee that they will also be viewed as top-tier candidates.

"This is eventually going to be a two-man race," Wilder said.

Since resigning from the House in December, Moran has fought hard to position himself as the natural alternative to McAuliffe.

If Doug Wilder's analysis is correct, and I see no obvious reason why it isn't, what we're talking about is the Democratic gubernatorial nomination coming down to Terry McAuliffe versus EITHER Brian Moran OR Creigh Deeds. In short, one of the "two men" will be Terry McAuliffe, the question is who will be the main alternative?

In terms of how the campaign plays out, Wilder's reasoning should logically lead Moran and Deeds to try and establish themselves as the alternative to McAuliffe. And, by extension, this should logically lead Moran and Deeds to start going after each other aggressively, which to date they have not done at all (in fact, Moran and Deeds appear to be essentially ignoring each other, from what I can tell, while Moran goes after McAuliffe as a "fighter not a fundraiser," etc.).

An alternative scenario is that neither Moran nor Deeds accepts Doug Wilder's analysis that this will come down to a two-man race between McAuliffe and one of the other two. In that scenario, I'd expect Moran to ratchet up the attacks on McAuliffe big time, while Deeds stays positive and hopes the two NOVA heavyweights knock each other out (while he edges them out for the nomination). In other words, more of what we've been seeing so far. If that happens, the big question will be what Tim Kaine, Mark Warner et al. decide to do. Kaine already has made it clear he wants the "right tone" in this race. What will he do if the "tone" turns nasty or negative? No matter what, given the crucial importance of this election to Tim Kaine's legacy, I don't see him keeping quiet while the Democrats rip themselves apart.

"Rush Limbaugh is a gift"

Brookings Senior Fellow Thomas Mann writes at The Politico (bolding added by me for emphasis):

Rush Limbaugh is a gift to Obama and the Democratic party who will keep giving the more he is seen as the embodiment of the Republican party. His bombast and ideological invective could not be more out of touch with the country’s zeitgeist. A Limbaugh-led conservative movement will be a boisterous but inevitably irrelevant minority. But a Cantor/Gingrich “new ideas” approach may not be much more promising if the ideas flow from the same bromides of smaller government and lower taxes and are based on a certainty that ours is a center-right country that values conservatism over performance. We are living through the most perilous and uncertain economic times since the Great Depression. Most Americans are scared, and rightly so. Strong and decisive government intervention in the economy is not an option, it is a necessity. We are not sure what will work but we are willing to give a new leadership team, one that demonstrates ambition, pragmatism and resolve, the time and space to give it a try. If this effort succeeds, Democrats are likely to dominate our politics for some time. If it does not, Republicans will have another opportunity to govern if they can be trusted to manage the nation’s affairs. Uniting in opposition to every Obama initiative, ranting about the evils of government, and offering tax cuts for every problem we confront will do little to restore that trust.

Personally, I'm rooting for Republicans to be the mindless, reflexive, "angry/no" party. If they go that way - the Rush Limbaugh "dittohead" direction - we could see a long era of progressive governance in this country. Which, by the way, is exactly what we need after 28 years of Reagan/Bush/Gingrich/DeLay conservatism. My second choice would be to see the Republican Party return to its Teddy Roosevelt Progressive roots (or, heck, even its Richard Nixon roots, sans the corruption and paranoia). If I were to put money on it right now, though, I'd say that a frustrated, angry, clueless Republican Party will continue following Rush right off the political cliff. Anyone care to bet against that scenario?

Bob McDonnell's Moderate Makeover

Headlines like this are exactly why Bob McDonnell scares the bejeezus out of me:

Divisive Issues No Longer McDonnell's First Words
Va. GOP Nominee for Governor Goes Centrist

Essentially, the man we were introduced to in 2005 as a Pat Robertson Republican, a man so right wing on social issues that he was nicknamed "Taliban Bob" by Jim Spencer of the Daily Press. Now, following the shellackings his party received in 2005 (Tim Kaine), 2006 (Jim Webb), 2007 (General Assembly), and 2008 (Barack Obama, Mark Warner, Tom Perriello, Glenn Nye), McDonnell has undergone a moderate makeover:

In a rousing speech kicking off his run for Virginia's highest office, Bob McDonnell told a room full of Republican supporters about his plans to jump-start the economy, lower college costs, reduce traffic and preserve the environment.

"We are going to offer bold, innovative ideas to solve problems," he told an enthusiastic crowd waving red-and-blue "McDonnell for Governor" signs at the Homestead mountain resort in December.

Despite all the campaign trail fanfare, this was anything but the typical launch of a Republican campaign for governor of Virginia. In fact, McDonnell's speech was remarkable for what went unsaid. Unlike past GOP nominees, McDonnell stayed silent on almost every bedrock conservative issue -- abortion, guns, the sanctity of marriage, school choice -- the very issues that served as the foundation for his 20-year political career.

But wait, you may be thinking, "nobody will ever believe that this extremist Pat Robertson disciple has gone moderate, right?" Think again, for two main reasons.

First, from everything I've heard from numerous other people and observed firsthand the past four years, Bob McDonnell is a highly skilled politician -- retail and otherwise. That's right; this is the kind of guy who loves working crowds, who remembers peoples' names, who asks people about their kids, etc. He's a good speaker. And he's clever. In other words, unlike Jerry "The Duck" Kilgore, Bob McDonnell is a strong politician (what a concept, huh?).

Second, Bob McDonnell is going to have the money to get his message out this summer and fall. Without a primary opponent to worry about, McDonnell is busy raising money ($2,034,801 cash on hand as of 12/31/08) and spreading his new gospel of "Moderate Bob."

Will McDonnell's strategy work? I certainly believe it's possible, depending on how things are going on the national level (the economy, Barack Obama's and Congress' approval ratings, etc.) and how effectively McDonnell gets his message out. McDonnell's strategy can be defeated, of course, but only if there's a concerted - and well funded - counterattack by Democrats to make sure Virginians realize this guy is a Pat Robertson clone, NOT a moderate. In addition, we will need a strong gubernatorial candidate of our own, one with - this almost goes with saying - huge sums of money, but also with an appealing message delivered effectively.

True, this isn't rocket science, but sometimes I feel as if we underestimate Bob McDonnell (in part because we believe people will see how extreme he is). Back in 2005, I remember the conventional wisdom being that if any Democrat would win statewide office, it would be Creigh Deeds...over Bob McDonnell. Instead, McDonnell eked out a narrow victory (323 votes), in part by outspending Deeds by almost $3 million. This is exactly why I say we need BOTH a "fighter" AND a "fundraiser" this year. If not, Bob McDonnell's friend Pat Robertson could be sporting a big-time grin on his face come the night of November 3, 2009.

Kaine: "Limbaugh is the leading force behind the Republican Party"

DNC Chairman Tim Kaine nails it: Rush Limbaugh rules the Republican Party.

Kaine Statement: Steele Apology to Rush Limbaugh Proves the Point: Limbaugh is Leading Force behind Republican Party

Washington, DC – On the same day GOP Chairman Michael Steele apologized to conservative talk radio show host Rush Limbaugh for courageously challenging Limbaugh’s role as leader of the Republican Party calling his show “incendiary” and “ugly,” Governor Tim Kaine, chairman of the Democratic National Committee, issued the following statement calling on Republicans in Washington to stop following Rush Limbaugh’s lead:

“I was briefly encouraged by the courageous comments made my counterpart in the Republican Party over the weekend challenging Rush Limbaugh as the leader of the Republican Party and referring to his show as ‘incendiary’ and ‘ugly.’ However, Chairman Steele’s reversal this evening and his apology to Limbaugh proves the unfortunate point that Limbaugh is the leading force behind the Republican Party, its politics and its obstruction of President Obama’s agenda in Washington. Just this weekend, Rush Limbaugh repeated his claim that he is rooting for the President to fail. The last time Rush Limbaugh said he wanted the President to fail, virtually every single Republican in Congress followed his lead and voted against the President’s plan to create or save 3.5 million jobs.

“As Congress works to pass the President’s budget, Republicans need to stop following divisive figures like Rush Limbaugh, stop apologizing to him and put aside the failed politics of the past so we can put our economy back on track, reform our health care system, break our dependence on foreign oil, improve our schools, and lay the foundation for long-term growth in the 21st Century.”

Great statement, but something tells me the Republicans are going to stick with their "incendiary"/"ugly" strategy, even if it destroys them.

Office of Legal Counsel Memoranda Released

This should be interesting. From the AP:

The Justice Department on Monday released a long-secret legal document from 2001 in which the Bush administration claimed the military could search and seize terror suspects in the United States without warrants.

The legal memo was written about a month after the Sept. 11 terror attacks. It says constitutional protections against unlawful search and seizure would not apply to terror suspects in the U.S., as long as the president or another high official authorized the action.

My question is, what if high-ranking officials - or anyone, for that matter - is found to have broken the law? Will there be prosecutions, a "truth commission," what? My strong belief is that this is a nation founded on the RULE OF LAW and that, although we shouldn't conduct "witch hunts," we should definitely ensure that nobody is above the law. You can see the memos here, at the U.S. Department of Justice website, now under new and improved management! :)

Michael Steele vs. Rush Limbaugh

Ah, the sweet sound of Republicans fighting. :)

UPDATE: Steele appears to agree that Republican National Convention looked like Nazi Germany. I'm sure THAT'S gonna go over real well with the Republican "base." LOL.

How Republicans Think: Bob Marshall Edition

Ben Tribbett has the scoop on this one. Here's Del. Bob Marshall (R-Mars?) on the stimulus plan:

That is as much a chain of slavery around our children. … It is as much a chain as ankle bracelets were as to African-Americans in the 1860s in this state. It’s just invisible. But it is a chain of death that we’re not going to escape.

What the @#$%@#$?!? Can Marshall get any more offensive? What next, a comparison to the Holocaust? My god.

Rest in Peace, Vito Perriello

I am very sad to hear this news:

Vito Perriello, Congressman Tom Perriello's father, died early this morning. Vito had had a massive stroke last weekend, and another stroke on Tuesday. He was taken off life support a few days ago, and he died peacefully with his family gathered around.

My condolences to the entire Perriello family, particularly my friend Tom Perriello. My thoughts are with you right now...

UPDATE: Tom Perriello issues a statement:

I appreciate the hundreds of supportive calls and notes during this devastating week, and most of all your prayers for my family. My father’s legendary integrity and sense of service will be missed not just by our family and but also by our entire community. I hope to spend decades trying to match his ceaseless lived commitment to our common humanity. Please keep my mother Linda, his loving wife of over 43 years, in your prayers.

Will do, my friend. Will do.

Preview: The Race to Succeed Al Eisenberg (D-47)

For the past few months, I've been closely following the race to succeed Del. Al Eisenberg (D-47), who announced on January 22 that he would not seek re-election in November. This announcement has unleashed a flurry of activity in the 47th House district, which encompasses the following areas of Arlington County: Ashton Heights, Ballston, Barcroft, Glen Carlyn, Clarendon, Lyon Park, Overlee Knolls, Westover, Arlington Forest, Fillmore, Jefferson, Dominion Hills, Lexington, Arlington View, Ashlawn, Virginia Square, Woodbury, Buckingham, Central, Monroe and Taylor. Currently, there are five candidates - Alan Howze, Adam Parkhomenko, Miles Grant, Patrick Hope and Andres Tobar - filed for the Democratic nomination (an almost 100% guarantee in heavily Democratic Arlington County of being the next delegate). There's also one other individual, top Tim Kaine aide Alfonso Lopez, who's been considering a run but has not made an announcement as of yet. With that, here's what I'm hearing about the candidates, the order of presentation here being roughly the general consensus on their current position in the race, chances of winning, etc.

5. Alan Howze
Having worked for Rick Boucher and Mark Warner (political director), Howze's experience is considered to fall primarily in the "political operative" category. Among other things, Howze's connections should allow him to raise significant amounts of money. However, the general consensus from what I'm hearing is that Howze doesn't really have a "niche," a particular community or issue with which to distinguish himself. Also, I've heard some people say they like him, but others say he's "hard to warm up to." Overall, the consensus is that Howze is probably running fifth out of the five candidates right now. We'll see if he can change that in the next 99 days or so.

4. Andres Tobar
Tobar, a long-time civic and political activist in Arlington County, primarily on issues related to the Hispanic/Latino community (e.g., executive director of the Shirlington Employment & Education Center, which oversees hiring of day laborers), is coming off a winning campaign - Emma Violand-Sanchez for Arlington School Board, which he managed. Tobar's extensive ties to the Latino community, however, may not help him very much in the 47th district, which does not have a large Latino population. In 2003, Tobar ran for House of Delegates in the 49th, finishing third (behind Adam Ebbin and Teresa Martinez) in a 5-say race, despite the conventional wisdom at the time that Tobar would win because he had the most endorsements. That loss led many people to conclude that Tobar is a great guy, but not an effective candidate (some say he's too laid back about it). We'll see if Tobar can ratchet it up a few notches this time around. One other point is that Tobar has been close to Al Eisenberg, which probably won't lead to an endorsement for Tobar but could keep Eisenberg from throwing his support to someone like Adam Parkhomenko, a close family friend of the Eisenbergs...

3. Miles Grant
Grant (aka, "The Green Miles") is seen as having a strong policy niche on a crucially important topic - the environment, which he has blogged about extensively and which he works on every day at the National Wildlife Federation. Grant also is seen as having a network of younger Democrats, including leading grassroots activists like Kip Malinosky, who support him. Grant is certainly working hard, knocking on doors, and building a strong, grassroots campaign. The questions are: 1) will Miles be able to raise enough money to be competitive; 2) will he be able to win without any establishment endorsements (the conventional wisdom is that he won't get them because he's not buddies with those folks); and 3) will he be able to rally young Democrats and environmentalists to vote for him while also expanding out from there? That's what we're going to find out in the next 99 days.

2. Adam Parkhomenko
The 23-year-old Parkhomenko has lived in the 47th his entire (young) life. The general consensus is that he has terrific political experience, contacts, energy and fundraising potential. He's working full time at this race, having left his job with the National Center for Missing & Exploited Children. He's got an office, a campaign manager, and is knocking doors like a fiend. Parkhomenko is expected to tap into the Hillary Clinton network for money and support of all kinds, given his long work for Senator Clinton (including on the Clinton for President campaign). Parkhomenko is also expected to draw support from police officers, based on his service in the Metropolitan Police Reserve Corps. Finally, Parkhomenko received a major endorsement today from Sen. Patsy Ticer (D-30), and this has greatly impressed the Arlington politicos I've spoken with. For all these reasons, Parkhomenko is considered a strong contender for the nomination, despite his youth and relative lack of education, experience, etc.

1. Patrick Hope
Hope is an attorney with an impressive bio, including extensive community involvement. Hope has been particularly active working on behalf of the homeless and kids (Special Olympics, "Hope for Kids," etc.). Through this work, Hope has established many strong connections with elected officials, and those are leading to endorsements by people like Arlington County Board Chair Barbara Favola, Arlington County Board Member Mary Hynes, and Arlington County School Board member Elaine Furlow. Finally, Hope is considered to be a strong speaker and "very likeable guy" (I've heard this over and over). The questions with Hope are: a) with everything else going on in his life, will he have time and energy to devote himself 100% to this campaign; b) will he get out there and knock on doors; and c) how much will endorsements matter compared to door knocking and grassroots support. All in all, Hope is the consensus pick right now as the front runner, but it's not by a wide margin in any way, shape or form.

Last, although Alfonso Lopez is not an announced candidate as of this moment, his entry into the race could change the dynamics (and above ranking) significantly, so he's definitely worth talking about in this context. If Lopez enters the race, almost everyone believes that he could be a serious contender -- but NOT a shoo-in by any means -- for the nomination. On the other hand, several observers I've spoken with believe that Lopez has waited so long that he's allowed other candidates to race ahead in door knocking, fundraising, organization building, etc. Certainly, everyone believes that Lopez has many strengths, including his close relationship with the Kaine administration (and many others). Several people have mentioned to me that County Board member Chris Zimmerman, and possibly others (Bob Brink?), could endorse Lopez if he throws his hat in the ring. And it's widely assumed that Lopez has the potential to raise a lot of money. In the end, the general consensus is that Lopez could "make a big splash...or not," depending on how hard he's willing to work at this (with just 99 days to go), how far ahead the other candidates have already gotten, how much money he actually is able to raise, etc.

In sum, this is going to be a very interesting 99 days in Arlington's 47th House of Delegates district, with no clear front-runner to replace Al Eisenberg, so definitely stay tuned!

Full disclosure: Back in December 2008, RK - before it closed its doors - endorsed Miles Grant for Delegate. I voted "yes" to endorse Miles, based on my friendship with him, but more importantly based on his demonstrated passion for the environment -- and other progressive issues as well. I also consider Adam Parkhomenko to be a good friend.

47th House of Delegates District Analysis Coming Soon...

I've gotta run out the door right now, but a full 47th House of Delegates analysis/preview is coming later this afternoon. In the meantime, things appear to be heating up, with one of the candidates, Adam Parkhomenko, having just announced an endorsement by Sen. Patsy Ticer (D-30th). More on this district, where incumbent Del. Al Eisenberg is retiring, coming later today...