Time to Shut Down the GOP

A few tweets and quotes sum up how i feel about now.*‏@NancyPelosi tweets, "That's the 45th vote to derail #ACA & proof that Rs are bent on shutting down the govt. Time to #ShutdownTheGOP, keep govt open for America." *Conservative Michael Gerson writes an article headlined, "The tea party's revolt against reality": "We are no longer seeing a revolt against the Republican leadership, or even against the Republican "establishment"; this revolt is against anyone who accepts the constraints of political reality. Conservatives are excommunicated not for holding the wrong convictions but for rational calculations in service of those convictions." *Right winger Jennifer Rubin writes an article headlined, "All working according to plan, just not the GOP's": "At some point, the Republicans in the House, with or without the Vitter Amendment and with or without the Dems, will pass a clean CR. Anyone who imagined they'd obtain something monumental by threatening to blow themselves up must have been, well, working for Heritage Action or one of its comrades." *Ezra Klein boils it all down to one sentence: "The GOP has become an insurgent outlier in American politics - it is ideologically extreme; scornful of compromise; and dismissive of the legitimacy of its political opposition." Klein also urges, Don't forget what the shutdown is really about. My thoughts: let's start shutting down the Teahadists, once and for all, at the ballot booths. It starts right here in Virginia on November 5, then continues in November 2014 when we have a chance to toss out all the Tea Party nuts who rode into town on the 2010 teabagger tsunami. Any other thoughts, other than outrage and revulsion at these extremist wackos - the Ted Cruzes, Rand Pauls, and all the Republican nuts in the House of Representatives? P.S. I just checked Ken Kookinelli's Facebook page, and all I saw about the government shutdown was Cuccinelli's ludicrous Big Lie, somehow attempting to tie Terry McAuliffe to it. I know, what universe does this guy live in? Definitely not the universe known by most of us as "reality."

Video - McAuliffe, Connolly, Moran to Cuccinelli: Condemn Tea Party for Holding Fed Budget Hostage

The following video is from earlier this afternoon at Gravelly Point in Arlington, next to National Airport (you can hear the planes taking off). In the press conference, Rep. Gerry Connolly and Rep. Jim Moran, plus Virginia's next Governor Terry McAuliffe, denounced the Tea Party-led government shutdown, and demanded that Ken Cuccinelli condemn his Tea Party allies in Congress for using the threat of a government shutdown as a bargaining chip in budget negotiations and against "Obamacare" (which they are obsessed with, despite the fact that it was passed through Congress, signed into law, deemed constitutional, an issue in the 2012 elections - which Democrats won resoundingly, etc.). The potential consequences if Congress fails to act are that the government will shut down at midnight Monday, which could seriously hurt Virginia's and the country's economies. For what?!? Because Republicans can't accept a duly-passed/signed/approved-by-the-Supreme-Court law?!? A few key points from the press conference: *Rep. Connolly said Republicans have "recklessly decided to hold the entire country hostage until they get what they want" on the duly-enacted LAW colloquially known as "Obamacare." *Connolly added that the economic consequences of a Tea Party-caused government shutdown "would be catastrophic," particularly here in Virginia. *Connolly: "We have a clear choice in this election on November 5. We have somebody who works well with everybody, somebody who's willing to reach across the aisle and work with anybody willing to work, and that's Terry McAuliffe. On the other hand we have somebody who is a member of the same club that thinks shutting down the government or defaulting on the sovereign credit of the United States is a tactic and the consequences be damned; someone who has put ideology ahead of the economy consistently as the Attorney General...somebody who has spent his time trying to ferret out researchers because he doesn't like the product; somebody who would turn this Commonwealth back...who would hand it over to a small band of ideologues...that's Ken Cuccinelli." *Connolly concluded that the Republican ticket is the most extreme in the history of Virginia, and he hopes "they get what they deserve at the ballot box on November 5." He strongly endorsed Democrats Terry McAuliffe, Ralph Northam and Mark Herring. *Rep. Moran said Terry McAuliffe wants to move things forward, he's a "pragmatist" who will do what "executive leadership needs to do." In contrast, Moran said that McAuliffe is running against somebody "who epitomizes what's wrong with Washington." *Moran said "if you like Ted Cruz, you're going to love Ken Cuccinelli." Amazingly, Cuccinelli has asked Cruz to campaign for him next week. *Moran: "So, Ted Cruz is going to have to take a little time off from trying to shut down the government, putting hundreds of thousands of federal workers out of business...that's what he's about." *Moran noted that Cuccinelli wouldn't use the Affordable Care Act to enable 400,000 Virginians to be able to get health care coverage by expanding the Medicaid program (with 100% federal funding). *Moran: "We don't need Cruz and Cuccinelli steering this state into the far-right corners of American policy...unwilling to compromise...while they serve themselves, their own ambitions, they dis-serve the public that they were elected to serve." *Terry McAuliffe said "Virginia's economic health can not be collateral damage from the Tea Party's ideological war...Everyone agrees that a government shouldn't be risked in negotiations, everyone EXCEPT Ken Cuccinelli and the Tea Party."

Video - McAuliffe, Connolly, Moran to Cuccinelli: Condemn Tea Party for Holding Fed Budget Hostage

The following video is from earlier this afternoon at Gravelly Point in Arlington, next to National Airport (you can hear the planes taking off).  In the press conference, Rep. Gerry Connolly and Rep. Jim Moran, plus Virginia's next Governor Terry McAuliffe, denounced the Tea Party-led government shutdown, and demanded that Ken Cuccinelli condemn his Tea Party allies in Congress for using the threat of a government shutdown as a bargaining chip in budget negotiations and against "Obamacare" (which they are obsessed with, despite the fact that it was passed through Congress, signed into law, deemed constitutional, an issue in the 2012 elections - which Democrats won resoundingly, etc.). The potential consequences if Congress fails to act are that the government will shut down at midnight Monday, which could seriously hurt Virginia's and the country's economies. For what?!? Because Republicans can't accept a duly-passed/signed/approved-by-the-Supreme-Court law?!?A few key points from the press conference: *Rep. Connolly said Republicans have "recklessly decided to hold the entire country hostage until they get what they want" on the duly-enacted LAW colloquially known as "Obamacare." *Connolly added that the economic consequences of a Tea Party-caused government shutdown "would be catastrophic," particularly here in Virginia. *Connolly: "We have a clear choice in this election on November 5. We have somebody who works well with everybody, somebody who's willing to reach across the aisle and work with anybody willing to work, and that's Terry McAuliffe. On the other hand we have somebody who is a member of the same club that thinks shutting down the government or defaulting on the sovereign credit of the United States is a tactic and the consequences be damned; someone who has put ideology ahead of the economy consistently as the Attorney General...somebody who has spent his time trying to ferret out researchers because he doesn't like the product; somebody who would turn this Commonwealth back...who would hand it over to a small band of ideologues...that's Ken Cuccinelli." *Connolly concluded that the Republican ticket is the most extreme in the history of Virginia, and he hopes "they get what they deserve at the ballot box on November 5." He strongly endorsed Democrats Terry McAuliffe, Ralph Northam and Mark Herring. *Rep. Moran said Terry McAuliffe wants to move things forward, he's a "pragmatist" who will do what "executive leadership needs to do." In contrast, Moran said that McAuliffe is running against somebody "who epitomizes what's wrong with Washington." *Moran said "if you like Ted Cruz, you're going to  love Ken Cuccinelli." Amazingly, Cuccinelli has asked Cruz to campaign for him next week. *Moran: "So, Ted Cruz is going to have to take a little time off from trying to shut down the government, putting hundreds of thousands of federal workers out of business...that's what he's about." *Moran noted that Cuccinelli wouldn't use the Affordable Care Act to enable 400,000 Virginians to be able to get health care coverage by expanding the Medicaid program (with 100% federal funding). *Moran: "We don't need Cruz and Cuccinelli steering this state into the far-right corners of American policy...unwilling to compromise...while they serve themselves, their own ambitions, they dis-serve the public that they were elected to serve." *Terry McAuliffe said "Virginia's economic health can not be collateral damage from the Tea Party's ideological war...Everyone agrees that a government shouldn't be risked in negotiations, everyone EXCEPT Ken Cuccinelli and the Tea Party."

Live Blog: Virginia Gubernatorial Debate (9/25/13)

You can watch tonight's Virginia gubernatorial debate, which begins at 7 pm (see below for my live blog), on either NBC 4 or on C-SPAN3. Also, if you're following the debate on Twitter, or if you're tweeting yourself, you can use the hash tag #VAGovDebate. A few Twitter handles you might want to check out include: @TerryMcAuliffe @KenCuccinelli @ChuckTodd (host of the @FairfaxChamber debate) @JoshSchwerin @vademocrats @briancoy @gwenrocco and @brbilberry Also @MoElleithee @PilotOnPolitics @omeola @RTDNolan @JulieCareyNBC @RTDSchapiro and @chelyendavisUPDATE 8:07 pm: @MoElleithee tweets, "SCREEEEEECHHHH!!!!!!!  That was sound of @KenCuccinelli throwing @BobMcDonnell completely under the bus." So true. Also, ‏@brbilberry tweets, "What a great night for terry. Sitting next to cuccinelli folks in audience they know this was not what they wanted to see." Very true; Cooch was really "off"/"rattled" tonight, while Terry was on his "A game." Huge advantage on style and substance for Terry over Kookinelli. UPDATE 7:55 pm: Closing statements (thank goodness). Terry: "Virginia women have had just about enough of Ken Cuccinelli." "Mainstream solutions." Cooch finally brings up Greentech Automotive, says "Terry will fight for Terry," while he will supposedly fight for us. Does ANYONE in their right mind believe that?!? If so, what controlled substance are you taking? Also, as I just tweeted, major #FAIL by Chuck Todd et al. tonight in not asking Cooch about his witch hunt against climate scientist Michael Mann, and of course his climate science denial. Those alone should be automatic disqualifiers for higher office in America at this point. UPDATE 7:53 pm: Question about pre-Labor Day start to school? Should "Redskins" change name. Terry says governor shouldn't tell private business what to do. Cooch says it's up to the team entirely. Stupid questions by Chuck Todd. Wasting our time. UPDATE 7:50 pm: Question to Terry on tax returns. Stupid question, this is not a real issue, as Terry has done as much or more than previous governor candidates. Star Scientific and CONSOL Energy really ARE issues, because they are real scandals - "that was [Cuccinelli's] legal responsibility." Has proposed strong ethics reform, will issue executive order on a $100 gift ban. Cooch says he reported the Star Scientific materials, shows how great he is (I think he may have just dislocated his shoulder patting himself on the back). Cooch also keeps saying "Democrat" when it should be "Democratic." Puerile punk. Throws out a bunch of ridiculous attacks, what a joke. UPDATE 7:48 pm: Question to Ken Cuccinelli on Jonnie Williams gifts, why he would give them to Cooch? Cooch throws McDonnell under the bus, says it didn't "seem like a big deal," had no idea Williams had business before Virginia. WTF? Says it was the "right thing to do" to give $18,000 to charity, even though he previously said there was absolutely nothing unethical about taking the money in the first place. Confused yet? Head spinning? Yeah...

UPDATE 7:44 pm: Question to Terry about gay marriage. Says he's for marriage equality, this is quite a difference from Cooch, who has referred to LGBT Virginians as "soulless and self destructive." Cooch says it will never come to the desk of a Virginia governor, says he thinks marriage should be one man/one woman. Cooch immediately starts attacking Terry again. This is really tiresome. Does anyone have one of those giant hooks to pull Cooch off the stage? Terry reiterates that he supports equal rights for LGBT Virginians. Brings up Cuccinelli's CONSOL Energy scandal, the Attorney General's office secretly advising CONSOL how to beat Virginia landowners owed money by this out-of-state energy company.UPDATE 7:39 pm: Question to Cooch on health care affordability for poor Virginians. Cooch says expanding Medicaid is not the way to make it work better. Huh? He makes no sense whatsoever on health care, utterly irrational, just like the rest of the Tea Party. Terry says Medicaid expansion is bipartisan, mainstream, and very important. He adds that this will allow 400,000 Virginians to get crucial health care, that this is the law of the land, and that it's our money we're bringing back into Virginia's economy. Virginia's rural hospitals could be jeopardized if we don't take Medicaid money. @ssurovell tweets, "Hey @Juliecarey - Cuccinellis answer to Virginians that would be eligible under Medicaid expansion - MOVE TO MARYLAND." Cooch says he doesn't trust the federal government to cough up the money, essentially. He is simply not serious. UPDATE 7:38 pm: Terry says no budget will be shut down over Medicaid expansion, will work in bipartisan way to make sure it gets done. Notes that he was endorsed by Republican VA Beach Mayor Will Sessoms and many other Republicans. Says (correctly) that Cooch almost derailed Virginia's budget. Says sequestration or shutting down government are unacceptable. "Shame on everybody" until this gets resolved. UPDATE 7:35 pm: Question on Ted Cruz, shutting down government over "Obamacare." Cuccinelli says he doesn't want to see government shut down, wouldn't be good for Northern Virginia. Riiiight, so have you told your lunatic Tea Party allies?!? Attacks Terry for saying he wouldn't sign budget without Medicaid expansion. Of course, Cooch has no revenue sources whatsoever, and opposes Medicaid expansion which would bring in a LOT of money to Virginia. Cooch claims he's the anti-Washington candidate. Dodges on Ted Cruz. Says he'd like to see Obamacare repealed. UPDATE 7:31 pm: Terry says without Medicaid expansion money, there's not a penny for any investment in mental health. As governor, his goal will be to make sure that all Virginians are safe. the Navy Yard incident the other day is part of a continued pattern. Need to eliminate guns from people who shouldn't have them. @LarrySabato tweets, "TM not shying away from gun control. Will hurt him in rural areas, help him in central cities, urbanized suburbs." @briandevine tweets, "I wouldn't bring up NRA ratings in a question about what I am doing about preventing gun violence." UPDATE 7:30 pm: Cooch points finger at mental illness, desperately tries to avoid talking about guns or answering the question (about implementing Virginia Tech commission recommendations). Claims gun control doesn't work...the usual, in other words. "Attacks" Terry for being "F rated" by the NRA. In reality, that is a badge of honor. UPDATE 7:28 pm: Question by Julie Carey to Terry on guns. Terry says when we drop our children off at school, we need to know they'll be safe, that's why I'm for responsible gun ownership, including universal background checks. Notes that he owns gun, is a hunter, has gone through background checks himself and that it's very simple and quick, but there are certain individuals who shouldn't own a gun. Says 91% of Americans support universal background checks, and the Senate refused to bring it up for a vote. UPDATE 7:26 pm: Chuck Todd follows up on Cooch's lame "loopholes" comment. "What are they?" Cooch says there are "scores of them," but won't allow himself to be pinned down to specifics, of course. UPDATE 7:25 pm: Terry says, correctly, that if we had Cooch's plan, Virginia would be "in financial ruin." Also notes that Cooch opposed the Governor's transportation plan, opposes the Silver Line, won't take Medicaid money, would devastate education and prevent Virginia from growing a 21st century economy. Would also devastate Fairfax and other localities, would force Virginia to lay off thousands of teachers. UPDATE 7:23 pm: Question from Aaron Gilchrist about Cuccinelli not providing specifics on how he'd pay for his huge tax cuts. Cooch actually cites North Carolina, which is being destroyed as we speak by the Tea Party, as a model for Virginian. Hmmmm. Claims he'd eliminated "15% of corporate tax loopholes," but of course doesn't say which ones. Basically, Cooch doesn't answer the question. #FAIL UPDATE 7:19 pm: Cooch claims Terry doesn't understand how Virginia government works. Refers to Northern VA Technology PAC endorsement, of course fails to mention that group is OVERWHELMINGLY Republican! Cooch says "Governor is not a good entry level job." You mean, like for Mark Warner, one of our greatest governors? Duhhhhh. The chutzpah of Cuccinelli is amazing, claiming "No one up here has done more to protect women." Is that supposed to be a joke?  ‏@jeisrael tweets, "And @KenCuccinelli wants to improve Medicaid -- which he thinks unconstitutional." UPDATE 7:18 pm: Question from Ben Pershing on paying for education. Terry says we'll look at efficiencies, work to get Medicaid expansion. Prudent budgeting. Cooch has proposed $1.4 billion tax cut, no idea how he'd pay for it, would be devastating for education (thousands of teachers laid off), would put "gigantic hole" in budget. UPDATE 7:16 pm: Chuck Todd quotes Bill Bolling about how far right the Republican ticket is. Cuccinelli basically disses Bolling. Cooch claims what Terry said is "false," when of course it's all true. Is Cooch's nose growing longer? It should be. UPDATE 7:15 pm: Terry points out, correctly, that Cooch runs on jobs, then when he gets into office pushes his far-right-wing agenda. Opposed Violence Against Women Act reauthorization. Has attacked gay Virginians. Says there are consequences to this "mean spirited attack" on women's health, gay Virginians, etc. Says we have to bring people together to move Virginia forward. UPDATE 7:12 pm: Question to Cuccinelli about pushing his right-wing agenda, be divisive. Cooch points to "broad array of support" he's been getting, including Democrats (huh?!?).@ProgressVA tweets, "@KenCuccinelli sez has positive record He's positively been attacking access to health care, LGBT Virginians, public schools." Cooch says he has basic beliefs that are "fundamental to me," but absurdly claims he's spent most of his time trying to move Virginia forward economically. Seriously? He really believes that? Cooch "jokes" that if Terry is elected, we'll have to change state motto from "Sic Semper Tyrannus" to "Quid Pro Quo." Hahahahaha. Not.  @ssurovell tweets, "Cuccinelli brags about fighting with Fairfax County to avoid cleaning up our local streams - not something to brag about." UPDATE 7:11 pm: Question about ethics, political connections. Terry says he's spent much of his life volunteering in politics, running businesses, he stands by everything he's done in his life and is proud of his accomplishments. Points out Ken Cuccinelli's Star Scientific scandal, $1,500 turkey dinner ("that's a lot of turkey"), etc. UPDATE 7:07 pm: Question #1 is on "negative TV ads" and "stereotypes" the other guy is trying to create. Terry gives his bio, emphasizes the importance of his business experience and approach. There are definitely differences between us. Cooch has pushed ideological agenda, bullying Board of Health, shutting down women's health clinics, etc. Cooch claims he's run positive ads, which is hilarious, given the reams of negative ads his SuperPAC allies are running. Basically, neither candidate really answers the question. UPDATE 7:04 pm: Cooch opening statement. Says he's the only candidate "who won't need on-the-job training." The problem, of course, isn't "training," but Cooch's extremist, bigoted ideas. UPDATE 7:03 pm: Chuck Todd now welcoming the candidates. Terry McAuliffe opening statement begins. Terry says the choice is simple: which candidate will focus on mainstream issues Virginians care about, on the economy, on commonsense solutions. Has assembled a "bipartisan coalition." Notes that Cuccinelli shook up his campaign, resulting a sharp increase in personal attacks, which he expects more of tonight. But what Virginians want to hear is how we'll deal with "serious economic headwinds" with sequestration, etc. No Tea Party "gridlock." We need mainstream solutions now "more than ever." UPDATE 7:00 pm: The moderator is Chuck Todd, who hopefully will "commit an act of journalism" tonight. The rules are...NO RULES! Just kidding. :) UPDATE 6:57 pm: @DannyKanner tweets, "@KenCuccinelli will be swinging for fences to erase deficit, but got a feeling the radical agenda can't be hidden at this pt."  ‏@BrianCoy tweets, "Waiting for @KenCuccinelli to turn #VAGovDebate into #FlailFest2013 in 3..."

One Photo Sums Up Almost Everything Wrong with Ken Cuccinelli

This photo, posted on Ken Cuccinelli's Facebook page, sums up SO much that's wrong with "the Cooch" that it's hard to know where to begin. But just for fun, here are a few that leap out at me.1. The Governor of Virginia has ZERO - nada, nil - ability to even mildly influence foreign policy. Yet Ken Cuccinelli, trailing by 6-7 points in the polls in his race for GOVERNOR, has repeatedly commented on foreign policy (Syria, specifically), in recent weeks. Utterly bizarre. Doesn't this guy have other things to focus on, like his flailing, failing campaign (which just experienced a shakeup, in part due to near-panic among Virginia Republicans that Cuccinelli is going to lose, and possibly lose badly, in 1 1/2 months. 2. The fact that Cuccinelli thinks foreign policy - Syria, specifically - might be a campaign issue in the Virginia Governor's race indicates how he will govern: focusing on his own agenda (and not on ours!), plus fighting constantly with the federal government (one of Virginia's biggest employers, as well as the basis of a good chunk of Virginia's economy) regardless of whether it benefits Virginians, and even where he has ZERO influence or "say" in the matter. 3. The news this morning is that the U.S. and Russia have agreed on a plan to seize Syria's chemical weapons, "backed by a U.N. Security Council resolution that could allow for sanctions or other consequences if Syria fails to comply." In other words: the Syria crisis is most certainly not over yet, but right now this agreement - and the policy of negotiating from a position of strength, including the credible threat of military force - looks like a MAJOR SUCCESS for the Obama administration. Yet Ken Cuccinelli will NEVER say anything positive about Barack Obama, or any "Democrat" (he refuses to say the word properly, just to prove that he can be a puerile putz, basically) politician. With regard to Obama, the fact is that Cuccinelli suffers from a SEVERE case of Obama Derangement Syndrome. Either that, or he's just pandering to his Teahadist base, which is driven to a frothing-at-the-mouth frenzy by a mixed-race guy named "Barack Hussein Obama" in the White House. 4. Cuccinelli's standing next to Rand Paul in that photo. Rand Paul? Seriously? You mean the guy who gets ZERO ratings from: a) NARAL Pro-Choice America (for supporting "personhood" legislation that would ban abortion and many forms of contraception, etc.); b) the League of Conservation Voters (for being an anti-environment, climate science-denyingnutjob); and c) the National Education Association (for his radical, anti-public-education agenda). Paul also gets abysmal ratings from groups like NETWORK ("A National Catholic Social Justice Lobby"), of course organized labor (that goes without saying for politicians like Rand Paul and Ken Cuccinelli), the Humane Society of the United States (for being anti-animal welfare), and the Alliance for Retired Americans (perhaps for saying Social Security is socialism and Medicare is a Ponzi scheme, etc, etc. On the other hand, Paul gets superb ratings from groups like the NRA, the "National Right to Life Committee," anti-Latino nativist groups like NumbersUSA, theChristian Coalition of America (founded by raving madman Pat Robertson, and advocating for a theocratic America), the Family Research Council (labeled an anti-gay "hate group" by the Southern Poverty Law Center, etc, etc. How is this relevant to the Virginia Governor's election? Because Ken Cuccinelli holds the same views as Rand Paul on all these things. As I said, this photo sums up just about everything wrong with Ken Cuccinelli, and certainly why he's wrong for Virginia! P.S. I'm not aware that Rand Paul is outright corrupt, so that might be one area where Cuccinelli has him beat (although both take huge sums of cash from the Koch brothers and other fossil fuel interests, then eagerly do their bidding).

Just Over a Month to Avoid Another 2005 Outcome Downballot

by FreeDem

"McAuliffe leads Cuccinelli in Virginia governor's race! That is the type of story I want to wake up to on a brisk autumn morning. But look beneath the headline-worthy results and there are some big concerns ahead for Virginia Democrats. There is just over a month remaining to avoid another 2005-style outcome, where the joy of sending Tim Kaine to follow in Mark Warner's footsteps was mixed with the agony of defeat for the rest of our statewide ticket and disappointment at the lack of coattails in the General Assembly. Like any good remake, the cast of characters in 2013 is different from the 2005 original, but the ending may be the same.In 2005, Jerry Kilgore ran an offensive, dirty campaign against Tim Kaine. The tax increases passed by the Republican General Assembly divided Kilgore's party; his campaign was a bumbling effort to avoid attacking the turncoats that helped Mark Warner while also promising to roll back the historic revenue increase that provided for a significant investment in public education. Usually if you can't say anything nice, you're not supposed to say anything at all, but Kilgore instead found that his only message was to go negative against Tim Kaine. We all remember the October ad referencing Hitler and Tim Kaine's religious and moral objection to the death penalty. Kilgore's fate was sealed, but only narrowly. Russ Potts, a moderate Republican exiled by his party's primitive proto-Tea Party wing, provided a vehicle of protest for moderate Republicans fed up with Kilgore. Polling as high as 4 to 5 percent in the month before the election, Potts received just over 2% of the vote. It might not sound like much, but it's the highest showing for a third party candidate for Governor of Virginia since William Story's 13.38% in 1965 as a Virginia Conservative (ignoring Henry Howell's 49.28% in 1973 when the Democrats did not run a candidate). A minor shift of other swing voters to Tim Kaine, based primarily in the suburban counties across the Commonwealth, made up the rest of the margin of victory over Kilgore. In 2013, the Republican Party of Virginia has replaced the country bumpkin Kilgore with the Tea Party zealot Ken Cuccinelli. Faced with a signature legislative accomplishment, Cuccinelli turned hard right against Governor Bob McDonnell's transportation plan. This split could have provided an opening for Bill Bolling to run as an independent, a choice that Big Bill is probably regretting right now as he watches the no-name Sarvis polling in the double digits. Like Kilgore, Cuccinelli cannot run on any legislative accomplishments from Richmond, and now finds himself without a popular Governor to latch his campaign to. When you don't have anything positive to say about yourself, the only campaign tactic left is to attack your opponent and drag them through the mud.

FreeDem :: Just Over a Month to Avoid Another 2005 Outcome Downballot

The big splash for Potts came from Kilgore overstepping the rules of common decency. For Sarvis, the obscure Libertarian from Northern Virginia, it's a different story of being at the right place at the right time. Some will try to argue that Sarvis represents a protest vote against both parties, but McAullife barely moves from 47% to 49% when Sarvis is not listed. Cuccinelli surges from 39% to 44%, demonstrating that Sarvis is pulling away Republican support. And don't be fooled, there's little evidence that these are moderate Republicans. The Washington Post poll locates the base of support for Sarvis: In the largely rural region that includes the Shenandoah Valley, Southwest and part of Southside Virginia, Sarvis is getting 19 percent of likely voters - clearly hurting Cuccinelli where the Republican should be performing strongest. Sarvis also does well among younger voters, taking 15 percent of those between 18 and 49. The recently released Bearing Drift poll, which I won't link to, found a similar trend of Sarvis doing the best in the 4th and 5th Districts, the rural parts of southern Virginia that voted heavily for George Wallace in 1968. There's no profile for these voters that combines both a moderate, independent streak opposed to Cuccinelli's war on women, gays, and all Americans outside of the Tea Party circus, with a geographic concentration in the most rural, conservative parts of the state. Cuccinelli has woken up in his own worst nightmare, a campaign where the Tea Party anger that he has spent a lifetime building is now being turned on him because he's seen as just another establishment Republican at a time in which Tea Partiers are angry at their own leadership, including Eric Cantor, for not shutting down the government over defunding Obamacare. Don't let reporters spin you on Sarvis representing independent and moderate Republicans fleeing the GOP, those are just cute stories and quotes thrown in by lazy reporting. Someone who wavers on voting for Cuccinelli, but returns to the Republican Party downticket for E. W. Jackson, is not a moderate. And it's downticket where the concerns about 2005 are biggest. In 2005, Kilgore's October meltdown barely trickled down to the rest of his party. Bolling and McDonnell both won narrow victories, while all but one Republican incumbent in the House of Delegates was able to hold on against Tim Kaine's suburban tsunami. Kilgore managed to alienated voters so successfully with his dirty tactics, it was almost too easy for the key demographic of moderates backing Tim Kaine and Russ Potts to swing back to the GOP downticket. Virginia Democrats are experiencing deja vu, Northam and Herring are neck and neck with their extremist opponents according to the Washington Post. There's no reason that E. W. Jackson should even be in the running for Lt. Governor, but with voters not yet turned on to the fact that he is a total laughingstock it's concerningly easy to imagine an October in which the emphasis continues to be on Cuccinelli alone, with not enough done to inform low information voters about the extremism of the entire GOP Ticket. The classic Warner playbook is to talk about how this specific Republican candidate is too extreme and out of touch with Virginia values, and to then trot out the same tired cast of former Republican officials long since forgotten within the GOP to provide quotes. The recent ad by Warner in support of McAuliffe is great, but it continues the same old Virginia Democratic strategy of always focusing on the individual Republican at hand, not attacking the entire party for being rotten. The ad is of little help to Northam or Herring, let alone the struggling candidates for the House of Delegates. In the month ahead, if history is any guide, Sarvis will collapse and his supporters will start the journey home to Cuccinelli. This natural tightening in the race may alarm some McAuliffe supporters, but it's natural. My advice over the next month, in addition to keeping up with your canvassing activities, is to respond to the tightening in the Governor's race by giving more assistance to the local races for House of Delegates. The big groups will make sure that McAuliffe has all the firepower he needs to win this. But the last thing we need is for McAuliffe to have to face Lt. Governor E. W. Jackson, Attorney General Mark Obenshain, and a House of Delegates that is largely unchanged from now.

U.S. Senate Confirms Gay Judge Unanimously; Mark Obenshain Walked Out of VA Senate

Another day, yet another example of how far out of the mainstream Republican Attorney General nominee Mark "Criminalize Miscarriages" Obenshain is, even by the standards of hard-core conservatives. First, check this out: On Tuesday, the Senate confirmed Todd Hughes' nomination to be a judge on the Federal Circuit Court of Appeals on a 98-0 vote, making him the first out gay federal appellate judge in the nation's history. Among those 98 Senators voting "yea" on the nomination of an openly gay judge were: Rand Paul, Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio, James Inhofe, Mitch McConnell, and assorted other ultra conservatives.Now, contrast that with what happened when an openly gay judge was up for a confirmation vote in the Virginia State Senate. That's right, Mark Obenshain walked out of the Virginia Senate, rather than sully himself by voting on the nomination of a gay judge. In other words, when it comes to LGBT equality, Mark Obenshain is so far out of the mainstream that he wouldn't even do what Ted Cruz, Rand Paul, Marco Rubio, James Inhofe, and Mitch McConnell were capable of doing earlier today - voting on an openly gay judge's nomination, and even (gasp!) voting "yea!" It says a great deal, none of it good, about Mark Obenshain. P.S. I almost forgot to mention that Obenshain voted in 2011 to allow discrimination against gay and lesbian employees in the Virginia state workforce. Also in 2011, Obenshain voted against letting state Virginia government workers share health benefits with their same-sex partners. It goes on and on like this, anti-LGBT vote after anti-LGBT vote by Mark Obenshain. Of course, he's on a ticket with two other raging homophobes, so what else would we expect?

Ken Cuccinelli Mixes Up Facts and Lies on Climate, Michael Mann. We Help Him Out.

A few minutes ago, we noticed this new page on Ken Cuccinelli's website, purporting to correct "lies" against him. I'm sure it was completely inadvertent, but somehow Cuccinelli managed to completely reverse "facts" and "lies." He also appears to be completely confused in other ways. So, since we of course wouldn't want to see Cuccinelli embarrass himself or anything, we decided we'd be nice and correct the mistakes on his "Climate Lawsuit" page (see corrected version on the "flip" of this post, or click on the image on this page to "embiggen")). The Cuccinelli campaign is of course welcome to replace their current, erroneous page with the following. I'd also be happy to help them fix their other pages if they'd like. Heck, I'll even do it for free! :)

lowkell :: Ken Cuccinelli Mixes Up Facts and Lies on Climate, Michael Mann. We Help Him Out.

E.W. Jackson: Non-Christians are all "engaged in some sort of false religion"

According to E.W. Jackson, astoundingly the Republican candidate for Lieutenant Governor of Virginia: At a morning sermon Sunday in Northern Virginia, Republican lieutenant governor candidate E.W. Jackson, a Chesapeake pastor, said people who don't follow Jesus Christ "are engaged in some sort of false religion."Jackson offered that view while describing a list of the "controversial" things he believes, and that must be said, as a Christian. "Any time you say, 'There is no other means of salvation but through Jesus Christ, and if you don't know him and you don't follow him and you don't go through him, you are engaged in some sort of false religion,' that's controversial. But it's the truth," Jackson said, according to a recording of the sermon by a Democratic tracker. "Jesus said, 'I am the way the truth and the light. No man comes unto the Father but by me.'" In other words, so much for: Jews, Muslims, Buddhists, Hindus, Sikhs, Atheists, etc, etc. Lovely, huh? So...if you don't adhere to exactly the religious beliefs EW Jackson says you must adhere to, you are engaging in "some sort of false religion." Now here's the thing: I strongly defend EW Jackson's right to hold whatever intolerant views he wants to hold, and to express those intolerant views in whatever house of worship he cares to share them in (not sure why anyone would have him in their house of worship, but that's their right too...). What I utterly reject is the concept of someone like this being elected to high office in my state (or any state, frankly). That's what is unacceptable in a multi-religious (and increasingly non-religious) country founded by a bunch of deists and theists who stressed strict separation of church and state.P.S. If you want, you can listen to this bigot's ravings here (not just about religion, also about homosexuality, with which he is absolutely obsessed, and again how liberals destroyed the black family far worse than slavery ever did...). Absolutely. In. Sane.

Will Government Shutdown Shut Down Cuccinelli's Gubernatorial Hopes?

by Paul Goldman

by Paul GoldmanWill the GOP obsession with defunding "Obamacare" deflate a puzzling boomlet for Ken Cuccinelli, who should be DCA - Dead Candidate Walking - about now? At 200-Proof Politics, we play like it lies; we don't judge, we just report. Right now, the evidence is clear: despite a massive anti-Cuccinelli TV barrage from Terry's campaign, and months of constant negative Cuccinelli stores from the mainstream media (caused in large measure by an incompetent campaign strategy), the beleaguered GOP GUV guy isn't DCA yet. In fact, the latest poll from a credible organization (Quinnipiac, not Roanoke) actually shows Cuccinelli LEADING if you posit a normative GOP turnout in a non-presidential statewide election year. Say what? None of this changes my Democratic "sweep" prediction, although the limb is lonely right now. But the stats are the stats: despite the Q-poll internals favoring Terry, the Democratic GUV guy has not "sealed the deal," as they say. I thought this thing could be over by September 15th if Cuccinelli didn't have a good push back issue. But he has gotten lucky on other fronts: the trial of the ex-chef at the Mansion now off the table; the mess over the otherwise meaningless NOVA Tech PAC endorsement being made into some major PR thing by Democratic overreaction; the fact the independents seem to be souring on everyone; and the Q-poll suggesting GOP loyalists are willing to vote for Cuccinelli, even though they have a negative view of him. Still, my middle-of-September rule only applies in blowout type situations, and Democrats have only had that one time (1985) in the modern Virginia gubernatorial race era. SO: While a comfortable Terry win is still there in the Q-poll numbers if his campaign does it right, perhaps the lucky breaks going Cuccinelli's way will not just be a few weeks reprieve, but rather omens that he could make a real horse race of it going into election day. Mitt Romney came back from DCA to rally, only to lose close in Virginia. In the end, a win is a win, but at this stage of the game, margin matters in the narrative. So does luck. And while Cuccinelli got a few breaks in recent days, it is also clear that the looming fight over Obamacare, and an increasingly likely government shutdown (pushed by some of Cuccinelli's top Tea Party allies and ideological compatriots), threaten to shut down Ken Cuccinelli's brief uptick.

Goldmanusa :: Will Government Shutdown Shut Down Cuccinelli's Gubernatorial Hopes?

I still hold to my view, lonely as it may be: Obamacare, which is tied to Medicaid expansion, should be a net-net PLUS issue for Cuccinelli in the Governor's race. That he can't seem to make it work for him is mind-boggling to me. The voters he needs to win are not big fans of Obamacare. In politics, when you are explaining, you are losing: and like it or not, Cuccinelli can make some plausible - for political purposes - charges that force McAuliffe into the "explaining" mode.BUT: A government shutdown will be huge news in NOVA. It is difficult to see how any "spin" can turn this into a plus for the GOP in NOVA. Meaning: talk about a Tea Party-led government shutdown is already eating away at Ken Cuccinelli's apparent boomlet. In fact, it might already have killed it. Logically, the President's slumping numbers on Syria played a role in any Cuccinelli uptick and in rallying Republicans to a protest vote. The public isn't giving the President credit for anything in Syria yet. Bottom line: Obama is going to win a government shutdown fight. This takes the focus from Syria and puts it back on a playing field far weaker for the GOP. This has to hurt Cuccinelli, at the margins at least. A full-fledged government shutdown, caused by the Tea Party's hard line on Obamacare and other issues, will cost Cuccinelli. Since the polls show his chances are iffy at best right now, this could make him DCA. Whatever extra energy it might give to GOP loyalists will be matched with equal (or greater) energy from Dems. Given how this campaign has gone, it must be assumed that Cuccinelli held back on his biggest selling point - the first AG to sue over Obamacare - to align with the October 1 start for signing up with the health care exchanges. What else makes sense? But come October 1, the big news very well could be the Tea Party-led shutdown of the government, forcing federal employees in NOVA to stay home (possibly without pay?). That will ripple through the whole NOVA economy and social media. It is all downside for Cuccinelli as I see it, especially given that he brags that he was "Tea Party before the Tea Party." Truth is, all other things being equal, Cuccinelli would have been better off with a nasty trial of the ex-chef than with a nasty "your momma" finger-pointing shutdown of Uncle Sam. But since a shutdown is bad national politics for Republicans, I will be amazed if they go that route after seeing the outcome of the 1995 shutdown that sealed re-election for a then very weak Bill Clinton. The House has to play its games to satisfy the base. But in the end, do they dare defy common sense? To the extent the public believes they will, Cuccinelli's uptick may have already evaporated and bigger downside awaits.