Election Day Open Thread: Polls Open 6 AM-7 PM

Just in case you weren't aware (ha), today is election day. I will be working the polls this morning for my friend Miles Grant, who is running for House of Delegates in the 47th district (Arlington) to replace the retiring Del. Al Eisenberg. I am very excited about Miles' candidacy, as he is a progressive champion and will bring a much needed perspective and energy to Richmond. Go Miles!

Also on the ballot today are the choices for governor (I've endorsed Terry McAuliffe over Brian Moran and Creigh Deeds), lieutenant governor (I've endorsed Mike Signer over Jody Wagner), and several other House of Delegates races (I've endorsed Mark Keam in the 35th and Kaye Kory in the 38th). At 7 pm this evening, we will (hopefully - I know I will) all unite as Democrats to defeat the far-right-wing troika of Bob McDonnell, Bill Bolling, and Ken Cuccinelli. I am very much looking forward to turning our firepower on those guys through November.

P.S. Please use this as an open thread to report whatever you're seeing and hearing out there. Thanks.

UPDATE: I was at my polling place at 5:55 am (to hand out lit for Miles Grant), and it promptly started to thunder, lightning and rain torrentially. Also, there was only 1 voter there at the start. By the time I left a few minutes ago (9:40 am), 113 voters had cast ballots, with poll workers saying there could be 450 by the end of the day (out of 2,000 registered voters, I believe) assuming an evening rush of people who didn't vote in the morning because of the bad weather. The only problem is, the forecast is for more thunderstorms later...

UPDATE #2: I'm hearing that Alan Howze has the worst poll coverage today in the 47th district. I'm also hearing that Mark Keam seemed to be getting a lot of votes in Oakton/Vienna...

UPDATE #3: The Washington Post reports, "Severe thunderstorms this morning appeared to lower voter turnout in a Virginia Democratic primary that was already expected to attract minimal participation, and predictions of more rainy weather tonight added to the sense of unpredictability in the wide-open three-way gubernatorial race." That definitely appeared to be the case where I was volunteering in Arlington.

UPDATE #4: A knowledgeable Democratic leader writes the following analysis, which I think is spot on.

Really low turnout helps those candidates who combine two things: (1) a really-well developed GOTV plan and (2) a really strong corps of committed loyal supporters. I don't think Deeds has either of those things in NOVA, and therefore it improves the relative chances of McAuliffe and Moran relative to Deeds in NOVA. On the other hand, if the thunderstorms are concentrated in NOVA and drive down NOVA's share of the total statewide vote, that helps Deeds and hurts McAuliffe and Moran. Go figure.

UPDATE #5: WJZ reports, "Registrars across Virginia are seeing light voter turnout in Tuesday's primaries...Election and party officials believe less than 5 percent of the state's 5 million registered voters will take part."

UPDATE #5: I'm hearing from a reliable source in Prince William County that turnout will probably be about 4%-5%. This compares to turnout of 1.1% in Prince William for the 2005 Democratic LG primary. I'm also hearing that in the 52nd House of Delegates district Democratic primary, Luke Torian will win in a landslide over Mike Hodge.

How High Will Turnout Be on June 9?

A question that keeps coming up is "what will turnout be on primary day, June 9?" Given that there hasn't been a serious primary for governor on the Democratic side since 1977, nobody really knows the answer. About the only thing we can do is look at past elections and try to extrapolate. Here are some numbers for Arlington County's turnout in previous gubernatorial primaries, courtesy of election guru and Arlington Treasurer Frank O'Leary.

1969: 16.9% (12,030 votes out of 71,000 registered voters)
1977: 17.2% (13,850 votes out of 80,400 registered voters)

This year in Arlington, there's also a hotly contested Democratic primary for House of Delegates in the 47th district. In previous years, turnout has been higher where there have been local races like this one. For instance, overall turnout for Arlington in 2005 (when there was no gubernatorial primary but there were four Democrats running for the LG nomination) was just 3.8%. In contrast, turnout in Arlington's portion of the 45th House of Delegates district -- where David Englin, Libby Garvey, and four other candidates were running in a closely contested race -- was nearly 9 points higher, at 12.5%.

Given this historical information, my guess is that turnout in Arlington County on June 9 will almost certainly be greater than 12%, but probably lower than 20%. Of course, it's certainly possible that an exciting governor's race, plus the 47th House of Delegates contest, could drive turnout even higher, but for now I'm staying relatively cautious (and also with a wide range) and guessing 12%-20% turnout.

Now, anyone care to repeat this exercise for other counties in Virginia? :)

UPDATE: Bryan Scrafford makes an excellent point in the comments section: "something that's worth considering is that we saw just under an 18% turnout in a special election for Braddock District Supervisor yesterday -- a race that didn't receive much media attention and also was in area where people were dealing with a wee bit of voter fatigue as they had just voted in a special election for county chairman a few weeks beforehand."