Latest Cook Political Report Ratings: Good News and Bad News

The Cook Political Report's latest ratings are out, and there's good news and bad news for Democrats.

The good news
*11 Republican-held House seats are listed as "lean Republican" or "tossup." Those are all competitive.
*"Only" 39 Democratic-held House seats are listed as "lean" or "tossup;" I actually thought this number might be worse.
*In Virginia, only one Democratic incumbent is at at "tossup" right now, with the rest either totally safe (Bobby Scott and Jim Moran), "likely" to be reelected (Gerry Connolly and Rick Boucher), or "leaning" towards reelection (Glenn Nye).

The bad news
*45 Democratic-held House seats are listed as "likely Democratic," while only 15 Republican-held House seats are listed as "likely Republican." If there's a "wave" next year and/or if the large "enthusiasm gap" favoring Republicans right now holds through next November, the "likely Democratic" seats could quickly get competitive.
*In Virginia, that could put both Gerry Connolly and Rick Boucher into jeopardy.
*Tom Perriello is listed as "Toss Up," which is obviously not ideal. Having said that, Tom's a fighter, a hard worker, and an excellent congressman, so we'll see what happens. Also, there's definite potential in this district for a third-party conservative ("Tea Party") candidate to emerge. That would only be good news for Tom Perriello.

Obviously, there's a long way to go until November 2010 and a lot could change, but this is a snapshot with 11 months to go. Keep in mind that Democrats hold a 258-177 (81-seat) edge right now in the House of Representatives, so even if they lost all 39 seats listed as "lean" or "tossup" and picked up no Republican-held seats, Democrats would still (barely) control the House. Hopefully, though, things will look a lot better come next fall...

Latest Cook Report: Most Virginia Dem's Looking Good for 2010

The latest Cook Report rankings are out, and it's pretty good news for Virginia Democrats overall. According to Cook, right now two Democrats - Rick Boucher and Gerry Connolly - are considered "likely" to retain their seats. Another one - Glenn Nye - is considered to be a "lean Democratic" seat. The one I'm most worried about is in the 5th CD, where Tom Perriello is considered a "toss up." Other than that, Virginia's House of Representatives Democratic members (Jim Moran, Bobby Scott) are safe. In addition, one Republican - Frank Wolf - is not considered completely "safe," with Cook ranking him as "likely" to retain his seat.

Overall, Cook has 36 Democrats nationally rated either "toss up" or "lean," compared to 12 Republicans in those two categories. If that holds true, we'll see Republicans gain 24 seats in the House of Representatives next November. That wouldn't be great, but it wouldn't be disastrous either as mid-term elections go. We'll see, but for now, the #1 priority is simply for Democrats to get stuff done, specifically the stuff they ran on in 2008 and won a mandate to pass. Health care reform. Climate and clean energy legislation. Comprehensive immigration reform. Getting the economy on track. Getting us out of Iraq. Dealing with the huge deficits - budget and trade - we inherited from 8 years of Republican profligacy and ineptitude. Etc., etc. C'mon guys, let's get it done!

P.S. One more point. Democrats need to turn out next November in a lot higher numbers than they did this November. If not, I think we're going to be much worse off than the Cook Report currently indicates.

Scott Surovell Accuses John Cook of "Race Baiting"

Fairfax County Democratic Committee Chair Scott Surovell takes on newly elected Fairfax County Board of Supervisors member John Cook.

Race Baiting to Make His Point
At 16:00 in the video, Cook goes after boarding houses calling them a “moral outrage,” and says “I’m coming after you with everything I’ve got and we’re going to SHUT YOU DOWN.” He then says “I pledge to bring that same problem solving spirit to the countywide issues we face.” No question that boarding houses are bad and no one wants them in their neighborhood. However, demonizing them with law and order demagoguery was Corey Stewart’s favorite tactic until he destroyed Prince William County’s reputation with his race baiting bombast. Illegal boarding houses a problem when they happen, but they are not the biggest or even one of the biggest problems facing the County right now. Singling this specific issue out in a swearing in speech is anything but non-ideological and is Corey Stewart code language to the Republican base.

Speaking of race baiting… At 19:00 in the video, he said he was from Chicago and that he’d go to meetings around Braddock and that when affordable housing would come up, people would say “I’m from Chicago and I’d say Cabrini Green and they’d say yup.” He then goes on to say that this project was “a shooting gallery, drug infested, magnet for every ill that can come to a family, a horrible place to put people to live. . . and we do not need to bring that kind of blight to Fairfax County.”

In response, Cook says "There was absolutely nothing racist about it and I would take great offense to that suggestion." Hey, John, maybe you should have thought about that BEFORE you made the offensive comments about Fairfax County being like the South Side of Chicago?